Last night’s win by the B.C. Liberals is a sweet personal victory for Premier Gordon Campbell – but it sets the stage for several coming bitter battles.
First and foremost, B.C.’s projected budget deficit of just $495 million this year in a time of economic crisis simply cannot be believed.
Instead, expect Finance Minister Colin Hansen to report that – surprise – things are much worse than he imagined in February, forcing severe cost cutting in public services and a larger deficit.
That news will end a relative truce with B.C.’s public sector unions and the overall labour movement, likely signalling a return to the major protests that marked the beginning of Campbell’s first rocky term in 2001.
The public sector’s strategy of signing long-term contracts that don’t expire until after the 2010 Olympics was the right move but the closing ceremony of the Games will mark the opening of a far more desperate contest between labour and the B.C. Liberal government.
Second, the B.C. Liberal Party instinctively knows that this is almost surely Gordon Campbell’s final term in office, triggering internal competition for his successor prior to the 2013 provincial election.
Will Colin Hansen – a liberal urban Liberal – have an easy ride to leadership or will suburban and rural conservative Liberals rebel, demanding a strong move to the right and out of Vancouver?
Third, the New Democratic Party will grapple with the question of whether to pursue leadership change in the wake of leader Carole James’ second spirited but unsuccessful attempt to dethrone Campbell.
Fourth and most dangerous for Campbell, will the B.C. Legislature Raid trial happen and start a dance of deadly skeletons in his closet? Co-accused former B.C. Liberal aides David Basi and Bob Virk have lots to say.
Count on one thing – B.C. politics won’t be boring.
