I think [Gordon] Campbell won the election in spite of the carbon tax, not because of it, and that [Carole] James almost rode a brilliant strategy to an upset victory in an election that would otherwise not have been close.
- Professor Mark Jaccard
Since the May 12 provincial election, many political observers have argued the New Democratic Party was badly hurt by its plan to eliminate the B.C. Liberals' carbon tax.
But all the evidence indicates exactly the opposite - the NDP gained votes and had a fighting chance of winning the election because of its anti-carbon tax policy.
So with Premier Gordon Campbell about to raise the carbon tax on July 1 by 1.2 cents a litre on gasoline and heating fuel, it's worth looking at what really happened.
Mark Jaccard is one of the few who got it right, all the more noteworthy because he is a strong advocate of the carbon tax who criticized the NDP when it opposed the B.C. Liberals' introduction of an initial 2.4 cent a litre gas tax in February 2008.
The reasons why "axe the tax" made sense are simple - one, the gas tax was an unpopular idea and two, a majority of those who felt it was their biggest issue actually voted NDP.
Ipsos Reid exit polls of voters showed the carbon tax was "very important" to 26 percent of those surveyed - and of those, 57percent voted NDP, 25 percent B.C. Liberal and 13 percent Green Party.
Ipsos Reid polling last year found a majority of supporters of every party, including Greens, opposed the carbon tax, while an exclusive 24 hours poll by Strategic Communications showed 73 percent didn't believe it would be revenue neutral.
NDP voters very opposed to the party's position on the carbon tax could have voted Green.
But the Greens' vote dropped one per cent while the NDP vote went up 0.6 percent and the B.C. Liberals stayed the same.
Jaccard rightly points out the NDP were 12 to 18 per cent behind the B.C. Liberals throughout 2007 and only got ahead in November 2008 after launching the axe the tax campaign.
Like it or hate it, the NDP position on the carbon tax was the right one for them to take - almost paying off with an election win.
What's bizarre is NDP leader Carole James decision last week to drop her party's fight and try to make "that tax more effective and more fair" - just before it goes up again!
And if you agree that the gas tax is unfair and ineffective - join 9,000 others at my Facebook protest group by going to www.facebook.com and search for Axe The BC Gas Tax.
Read more from Bill Tieleman at www.thetyee.ca Hear Bill Mondays at 10 a.m. on CKNW AM 980's Bill Good Show. Email: weststar@telus.net Website: billtieleman.blogspot.com
