We're not under any illusion here. Your main competition here is the NDP.
– Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Campbell River, B.C.
Could 2011 be the defining federal election of the century, with a dramatic political realignment as the New Democrats’ “orange surge” helps them replace the Liberals as Canada’s official opposition?
Or will a national collapse under Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff simply lead to a majority Conservative government?
And could the separatist Bloc Quebecois surprisingly become merely a minor and irrelevant irritant instead of Canada’s third largest party?
Several stunning polls last week rocked the political world when they indicated NDP leader Jack Layton is outperforming both the Liberals nationally and the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec.
An Ipsos Reid national poll last week showed the NDP at 24 per cent, ahead of the Liberals at 21 per cent, with the Conservatives at 43 per cent - in majority territory.
An Angus Reid poll had the NDP and Liberals tied for second at 25 per cent each, with the Conservatives at 36 per cent - likely still to produce a minority government.
But the Quebec CROP poll with the NDP at 36 per cent in first place over Gilles Duceppe’s Bloc with 31 per cent, the Conservatives at 17 per cent and the Liberals at 13 per cent could mean an NDP breakthrough.
The importance of B.C. voters’ ballots is now huge – and the choices have narrowed to two main contenders – Conservative or NDP.
A B.C. poll by Angus Reid last week put the Conservatives at 42 per cent, with the NDP at 32 per cent, Liberals at 18 per cent and Greens at six per cent, likely ending Elizabeth May’s chances of being that party’s first elected MP in Saanich and the Islands.
New Conservative and Liberal ads attacking the NDP and Harper spending last weekend in B.C., indicate Layton’s rise is no mirage.
What all this means on the ground is clear – in B.C. the Liberals are going to lose seats and the NDP is going to gain seats, as may the Conservatives. That could spell the difference between a Tory minority or majority government.
NDP candidate Jasbir Sandhu is likely to take Surrey North, where hapless Tory MP Dona Cadman faced a local newspaper headline – “Desperately Seeking Dona” – detailing her ducking debates as she “remains invisible” in the riding.
The Conservatives’ Wai Young expects to win Vancouver South after losing to Liberal Ujjal Dosanjh by just 20 votes in 2008.
The NDP are betting former B.C. Teachers’ Federation president Jinny Sims will win a three-way battle in Newton-North Delta against Liberal MP Sukh Dhaliwal and the Conservatives.
And while Ignatieff’s Liberals and Duceppe’s Bloc will make a last desperate effort to block the “orange surge,” it’s clear that Jack Layton is in an unprecedentedly powerful spot to change Canada’s political history.
Read more at www.TheTyee.ca and http://billtieleman.blogspot.com/ E-mail: weststar@telus.net
