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WINNIPEG - It looks like Manitoba's capital may be on the verge of setting a modern-day homicide record that doesn’t give the city a black eye.
Winnipeg has gone murder-free during the opening eight weeks of 2010 and is two days from surviving the first two months of the year without one, as of press time Friday.
If this weekend comes to pass without one, it would be the first time in a long time there hasn’t been a homicide reported in the city before March 1 and may be the longest Winnipeg has gone before recording the year’s first, although no records are kept for such a thing.
“That number varies but it appears that in recent history the furthest in a year before we’ve had a homicide has been about five weeks,” a Winnipeg police spokeswoman said.
It’s good news and good fortune for a city that repeatedly finds itself near the top of Statistics Canada’s per capita murder rankings and is dragged through the mud for it.
So far in 2010, no family has had to endure the pain and grief of losing a loved one to violence.
The lull is difficult to explain but isn’t an indicator of what lies ahead, police and observers say.
“When you have small numbers of anything they tend to fluctuate,” said U of M professor and criminologist Rick Linden. “To me, it’s just that we’ve been lucky so far.” Police say anything can happen and cite 2004 as proof.
There were no homicides in January 2004 but the year ended up as Winnipeg’s deadliest, with 34 slayings in the following 11 months.
And 2010 hasn’t been violence-free. Several people have been attacked and seriously injured, leading to attempted murder charges in some cases.
Winnipeg’s last homicide was Dec. 11, about 11 weeks ago.
The city has gone homicide-free for long spurts within a calendar year several times.
“We have experienced extended periods of time between homicides and there appears to be no rhyme or specific factors which are known to cause that,” the police spokeswoman said.
In 2009, for example, more than 10 weeks passed between the city’s sixth and seventh homicide victims. The year ended with 29, one of the highest counts on record.
By this time in 2009, six people had been slain.
Homicide rates and occurrences are extremely difficult to predict, police said.
The lull has given the homicide unit more time for unsolved cases or other work.
In recent years Winnipeg has averaged 24 homicides a year, with higher totals - 27 to 29 - in the last three.